China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has now given Geespace two years to prove that model commercially. The August approval allows the Geely-backed company to sell satellite IoT services using the first phase of its LEO constellation. It follows a similar approval for Beijing Guodian High-Tech in May.
64 satellites. 340 million communication sessions a day. Up to 20 million users. And no more than 1,900 bytes in a single transmission. Those numbers describe Geespace’s current GEESATCOM network.
The most interesting number here may be 1,900 bytes. That is enough for a location update, equipment reading or short operational message. It also says plenty about the economics. Satellite IoT does not need broadband pricing to work. It needs millions of devices sending tiny messages often enough to justify keeping them connected.
The wider market is moving in that direction. Berg Insight counted 5.8 million satellite IoT subscribers in 2024 and expects 32.5 million by 2029, a 41.1% annual growth rate. Revenue is forecast to rise from €334.1 million to €1.58 billion over the same period.
But average monthly revenue per connection is expected to fall to about €4.05. At €4 a month, expensive terminals and specialist integration quickly become difficult to defend. Hardware needs to become cheaper, installation simpler and distribution much broader.
Geespace has an unusual route into that market through Geely.
Satellite hardware can be designed into vehicles during manufacturing rather than sold later as specialist equipment. The same logic can extend to industrial machinery and other connected assets. Volume then comes from the product being connected at the factory, not from convincing each customer to buy satellite connectivity separately.
Another pressure comes from cellular standards. GSMA research describes NTN increasingly as “just another network”, with satellite providers operating more like wholesale carriers behind MNO and MVNO services. Hybrid devices can stay on terrestrial networks when available and use satellite when required.
That raises a less comfortable question for satellite operators. If the mobile operator owns the SIM, billing platform and enterprise relationship, how much of that €4 remains with the satellite provider? MIIT’s trial should provide some early evidence. China is asking Geespace to prove more than whether 64 satellites can exchange data with sensors. The harder test is whether a private LEO operator can produce millions of low-revenue connections cheaply enough to build a repeatable telecom business.
At 1,900 bytes at a time, there is not much room for expensive mistakes.