Much of the focus on quantum technologies remains fixed on their potential. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Perception Survey 2025–2026 suggests another reality is emerging, with perceived risks from frontier technologies climbing steadily over the next decade:
“All three key areas of quantum technology–computing, communications and security, and sensing–could see rapid change,” the study says. “Quantum computing in particular has the potential to contribute to breakthroughs in many fields.”
1. The Unravelling of Digital Trust
The most serious risk is also the least visible at first. Quantum computers powerful enough to break today’s cryptography would undermine the systems that allow people, institutions, and machines to trust one another online. Banking transactions, digital identities, medical records, government communications, cloud services, and industrial systems all depend on encryption that quantum algorithms are expected to defeat.
This threat unfolds in stages. Data is already being stolen and stored, waiting for future decryption. Once authentication itself becomes unreliable, the damage accelerates. Identities can be impersonated, transactions can be falsified, and records can be altered at scale. The deeper consequence is not technical failure but behavioural change. When trust collapses, people pull back. Sensitive services move offline. Efficiency gives way to friction. The digital economy slows not because systems fail outright, but because confidence disappears.
2. Cyber Risk Crossing into Physical Harm
When digital trust weakens, cyber risk stops being concrete. Power grids, transport networks, water systems, healthcare infrastructure, and industrial controls all rely on secure digital foundations. Quantum-enabled attacks would raise the odds of system-level failures: longer blackouts, disrupted logistics, compromised hospitals, or unsafe transport systems.
At this point, cybersecurity becomes a matter of physical safety and national security. A successful attack no longer affects only data. It affects lives, supply chains, and public order. The distinction between cyber incidents and infrastructure incidents is beginning to blur.
3. Concentration of Power in Fewer Hands
Quantum technologies demand a scale of a multitude of variables: capital, talent, specialised hardware, and long-term state support. This creates a natural concentration of power. A small number of countries and corporations are positioned to lead, while many others remain dependent.
The risk here is structural imbalance. Quantum advantages in optimisation, intelligence, materials science, and logistics translate directly into economic and strategic leverage. Over time, this could widen global inequalities and deepen digital divides, both between countries and within them. The benefits of quantum progress may accumulate where they already exist, reinforcing existing asymmetries.
4. Geopolitical Escalation & Strategic Instability
Quantum capabilities carry clear military and intelligence value. Supremacy in areas such as cryptanalysis, sensing, and secure communications could shift strategic balances quickly. This raises the risk of winner-take-all dynamics in geopolitics, where states race to secure an advantage before rivals do.
As competition intensifies, secrecy increases. Defensive research becomes indistinguishable from offensive preparation. The risk of miscalculation grows, particularly in periods of broader geopolitical tension. Over time, state-backed criminal groups or non-state actors may gain indirect access to quantum tools, further complicating attribution and deterrence.
5. Loss of Human Oversight Through Technology Convergence
Quantum risks intensify when combined with artificial intelligence. AI accelerates quantum research, improves error correction, and supports algorithm discovery. At the same time, quantum computing promises to enhance optimisation and machine learning, increasing speed and autonomy.
The combined effect is acceleration. Decision-making becomes faster, more complex, and harder to supervise. In security-sensitive domains, this raises the risk that systems will act beyond human understanding or control. The danger lies less in intent and more in opacity.
Bottom Line
Quantum technologies exert pressure on systems long before they deliver visible disruption. The strain shows up first in cryptography, then in trust, and eventually in the institutions and infrastructures built on both. As security assumptions weaken, cyber risk bleeds into physical systems, while economic and strategic advantages consolidate among a small group of actors.